Dear friends,

please find here below the latest and final resuming of crop 2018 global production

wptc production 10-01-19

As you can see the total quantity is just above 34 millions tons of fresh tomatoes that is well below the forecast indicated in June of last year.

Coming back to the graph crossing production and consumption, we now obtain the following document:

diagramma production consumption 2018


Following the same logic used in my previous report which was suggesting to take as a reference the start of crop 2014 when the world market was more or less in balance (and quoting very high prices) we arrive to the conclusion below indicated :

  1. during the crops 2014 – 2018 we have processed a global quantity of about 191,000,000 tons
  2. the consumption during the same period according to the above estimate has been equivalent to about 186,500,000 tons of fresh tomatoes
  3. the difference between the above numbers is bringing a total carryover on top of what it was available at the start of crop 2014 of about 4,500,000 tons of fresh tomatoes equivalent.

In our opinion at the start of crop 2019 most of that quantity will be available in California, few in Europe and almost nothing in China.

Really very serious would be the shortage in Turkey and Iran.

Prices of tomato paste are starting to rise even if the level is still reasonable and this just because of the persistent financial crisis of many producers.

The future market trend is totally depending on next crop intention and then final output. What I mean is that in case crop 2019 quantity will be same or very similar to the one just concluded, then price level will go crazy.

Within a couple of months we will get the first indication for the crop 2019 and the intention should be equivalent to about 36,500,000 – 37,000,000 tons of fresh.  If I am right then the market price will remain stable.

Nevertheless this is just my guess….

Let’s wait and see!

Armando Gandolfi